MNI BRIEF: BOJ Consumption Index Falls

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY2 Bln Via OMO Thurs; Rates Unchanged

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1028 Thurs; -4.28% Y/Y

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1028 THURS VS 7.1016

MNI: BRAZIL'S COPOM CUTS SELIC RATE BY 25BP TO 10.5%

INDON Sov Curve Steepens, BI Gov Hint At No Further Hikes

MNI: CHINA APR EXPORTS +5.1% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

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MNI BRIEF: China April Exports Improve; Imports Surge

MNI (Singapore)
(MNI) Beijing

A pick up in overseas demand saw China exports recover through April.

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LATEST INSIGHT

MNI China Press Digest May 09: Property, Economy, Retail

MNI picks key stories from today's China press

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MNI BCB WATCH: Lack Of Statement Guidance Shows Copom Divided

Four dovish dissenting votes highlight a divided committee that could make upcoming decisions challenging.

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MNI BRIEF: BCB Copom Cut Selic Rate 25bp; Four Dovish Dissents

All deputy governors appointed by President Luís Inácio Lula da Silva voted for a 50 basis point cut.

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MNI: Fed's Perli Lays Out Plan For Tracking Reserves Abundance

The New York Fed will track several indicators for signs that reserves are approaching "ample" levels.

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Political Risk

Pressure On Budget To Support Growth & Hold Back Inflation

The federal budget is announced on May 14 at around 1930 AEST. RBA Governor Bullock said this week that Treasurer Chalmers has reassured her that inflation is at the front of his mind. There seems to be a lot of pressure to increase spending and stimulate growth and thus uncertainty over whether there will be restraint in the near term in order not to fuel inflation. The next election is due by May 2025, which is also likely to influence decisions. The RBA is “vigilant” to upside inflation risks, including the budget.

  • Another surplus may be predicted due to favourable conditions for commodities but the budget is also likely to show an overspend but also stronger revenue from income and company taxes. Deficits though are expected to rise across the rest of the forecast horizon.
  • Judo Bank’s chief economist has estimated that new spending of $5-10bn would not pressure rates, but over $10bn or 0.5% of GDP could be inflationary. The July 1 tax cuts are estimated to be equivalent to 3 rate cuts.
  • Treasury’s inflation forecast was around 0.75pp lower than the RBA’s in its MYEFO at end-2023. With the RBA revising up its CPI forecasts this month back towards its November projections, although Q4 2024 is now 0.5pp higher, the government’s expectations will be watched closely to see if they are revised in tandem.
  • Some information has been announced including stage 3 tax cuts (FY25 $23bn), projects for western Sydney ($1.9bn), domestic violence support ($925mn), Future Made in Australia ($1bn), HECS relief ($3bn) plus green hydrogen support. More details will probably be released over the coming days.
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AUSTRALIA

Cleveland Fed Consultant On Policy Outlook

MNI interviews Cleveland Fed academic consultant on monetary policy -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

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MNI EXCLUSIVE

Szijjártó Pushes Back On NATO Actions Re: Ukraine In Meeting w/UK FM

Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó has held a meeting with his British counterpart Lord Cameron in London. As could be expected, the two countries remain poles apart on the war in Ukraine, with the UK a staunch Russia hawk while Hungary is viewed as one of the most Russia-friendly NATO members. Szijjártó said that Hungary would stay out of NATO's "reckless action" in training Ukrainian troops, coordinating arms supply and providing EUR100bn to Kyiv. Calls NATO's proposals "pro-war".

  • Szijjártó has also been speaking at a Chatham House event. Patrick Wintour at The Guardian posts on X some notable comments.
    • On China: Szijjártó, "says he expect China to sign 18 agreements with Hungary when Xi Jinping visits this week, including covering nuclear energy and rail infrastructure, as well a common political declaration that will upgrade the level of co-operation. [...] He does not deny, or confirm, China plans to announce a new Hungarian electric vehicle plant built by [China]."
    • On the US election: Szijjártó says the "Hungarian government is "crossing its fingers" for a victory for Trump saying he is the best global leader to bring peace to Ukraine."
    • On the war in Ukraine Szijjártó, "Insists he has told Russian leaders in public to their face that seizing land by force is unacceptable, but will not supply weapons to Ukraine because "this war does not have a solution on the battlefield". Warns weapon escalation will lead to a global world war breaking out. Wants peace around a negotiating table..."
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HUNGARY

Envoys Agree Law To Use Frozen Asset Windfall Profits For Ukraine

Wires reporting that according to Reuters sources, EU permanent representatives have agreed on a law to use windfall profits from frozen Russian assets for Ukraine's defence. This comes 48 hours after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz indicated that he would back such a plan, with Scholz stating after a meeting with Baltic states' national leaders that "It is important that we also agree that this money can be used for arms purchases not only in the EU, but for purchases worldwide,"

  • Reuters: "In March, the European Union's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell proposed taking take 90% of revenues from Russian assets frozen in Europe and transfer them to an EU-run fund that finances weapons for Ukraine. Some 70% of all Russian assets immobilised in the West are held in the central securities depository Euroclear in Belgium, which has the equivalent of 190 billion euros ($204.67 billion) worth of Russian central bank securities and cash."
  • The White House has suggesteda plan that "would involve releasing about $50bn of funding for Ukraine via a loan or bond secured against future profits from the frozen assets", while under the now-agreed EU plan, "a majority of present and future profits from Russian assets held by Euroclear will be used primarily to jointly purchase weapons for Ukraine. All the profits generated up to mid-February will be left to Euroclear to act as a buffer against legal costs and risks."
  • Euractiv reports that at present the windfall profits on frozen assets in the EU are worth up to EUR3bn/year.
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EU-RUSSIA

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MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1028 Thurs; -4.28% Y/Y

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