MNI:BOC Says Financial System Has Been Resilient To Rate Hikes

BOC SAYS HOUSEHOLDS HAVE BEEN RESILIENT TO RATE HIKES

MNI: BOE MPC VOTES 7-2 FOR NO CHANGE; 2 FOR 25 BPS CUT

MNI BRIEF: China Holiday Consumer Market “Prosperous” - MOFCOM

MNI BRIEF: China Daily Steel Output Highest Since Aug 2023

MNI BRIEF: Global Rates Divergence To Slow EM Easing- CBRT

BOE DMP details mixed

MNI: US JOBLESS CLAIMS +22K TO 231K IN MAY 04 WK

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

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MNI BOE WATCH: Holds In May, Takes Another Step Towards Cut

(MNI) London

The BOE holds its policy rate at 5.25% at its May meeting with Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden joining Swati Dhingra in voting for a cut

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LATEST INSIGHT

MNI BRIEF: Mexico Apr Inflation 4.65%, In Line With Consensus

Core inflation was 4.37%, versus 4.39% expected.

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MNI: BOE MPC Holds; Ramsden Joins Dhingra In Vote For Cut

BOE MPC holds Bank Rate at 5.25% at May meeting; Deputy Governor Ramsden joins Dhingra in voting for cut
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MNI BRIEF: China April Exports Improve; Imports Surge

A pick up in overseas demand saw China exports recover through April.

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MNI China Press Digest May 09: Property, Economy, Retail

MNI picks key stories from today's China press

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Political Risk

NBC-Israel Want Rafah Operations Excluded From Any Ceasefire Deal

NBC News reporting that according to Israeli officials, Israel refuses to agree to any deal with Hamas that does not enable it to engage in a military offensive in Rafah, even during a ceasefire. According to NBC, "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the country's military would enter the city “with or without” a deal with Hamas.
Israel demands that Rafah be walled off from a cease-fire deal, according to four current and one former U.S. officials familiar with the discussions."

  • Another Israeli official claimed that the claim of 'walling off' the Rafah operation from a ceasefire was incorrect, citing Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, who claimed that "This operation will continue until we eliminate Hamas in the Rafah area and the entire Gaza Strip, or until the first hostage returns".
  • Given the US' increasingly strained support for Israel, it is unlikely that the White House would offer its backing to a ceasefire deal that sees the IDF continue any offensive operations around Rafah (not to mention it likely proving a significant red line for Hamas).
  • Al Jazeera is reporting that CIA Director William Burns will return to the US after the latest round of indirect talks between Israel and Hamas in Cairo. Burns earlier in the week visited Israel for talks with Netanyahu.
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ISRAEL

Gov't Approves Limited Renewal Of Exports To Israel-Globes

There appears to have been some movement in Turkey's halt on trade with Israel. The Turkish Trade Ministry announced the cessation of trade less than a week ago in opposition to Israel's action in Gaza, expanding on a previous halt to trade in construction equipment. However, earlier Israel's Globes News reported that the Turkish gov't has approved a limited renewal of exports to Israel for certain companies.

  • Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz posts on X: "Erdogan backtracked and canceled many of the trade restrictions, and the lesson is clear: We must not surrender to the threats of a dictator, and we must create alternatives and not depend on the Muslim Brotherhood guy who can stop it all at any moment.”"
  • Reuters reporting that a Turkish Trade Ministry source stating that Turkey is to "allow companies with Israel deals to export there via third countries for three months after the trade halt", but adds that "a relaxation of the export ban is out of the question."
  • Globes reports: "Turkey's Ministry of Trade has sent letters to factories in the local construction industry that worked with Israel until the export ban of 54 items imposed exactly one month ago, and informed them today (Thursday) of a temporary approval to resume supplies to Israel, [...] This is [...] temporary and only for factories that have already worked with Israel." The article claims the shift came following a meeting between the Turkey-Israel Chamber of Commerce and Trade Ministry officials,
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TURKEY

Hunt Expects 'Soft Landing' For Economy-WSJ

Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt and his likely successor (according to current opinion polling), Labour's shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves, have both spoken at the WSJ's CEO Councilevent in London. Hunt claimed that "We are waiting tomorrow to hear whether the U.K. is out of a recession and I think it’s likely we will hear we’ve had a soft landing,” On the upcoming general election, Hunt claimed that “The difference between us and Labour is Conservatives look around the world and we see the fastest-growing economies, whether its North America or in Asia, are ones that have lower tax burdens, and we think we need to go on that difficult journey, and that means difficult decisions".

  • WSJ reports that "Reeves promised the most business-friendly government in British history if the opposition party wins the election..." Reeves: “...with the economic inheritance we’re going to get, we’re not going to be able to spend our way to better public services, we’ve got to grow the economy and reform the public services to be able to ensure they are delivering..." WSJ reports she "also said she would seek changes to the U.K.’s fragmented pension system to encourage savings to be channeled into investment."
  • The comments from the incumbent and shadow chancellors come around the release of a YouGov opinion poll showing Labour 30% ahead of the Conservatives, with support of 48% and 18% respectively.This represents the largest Labour lead in a YouGov poll since former PM Liz Truss' short-lived tenure in late-2022.
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UK

CHINA-Xi 'Ready To Promote High-Level Development' Of Ties

Chinese state media reporting comments from President Xi Jinping on his visit to Hungary. Says that he is "ready to jointly promote [the] high-level development of China-Hungary ties." Xi is in Budapest for meetings with PM Viktor Orban as the final part of his European tour that included trips to France and Serbia. Reuters: "Xi has "developed deep friendships" with Hungarian politicians and Hungary was "the number one target in the central eastern European region for Chinese investment", Xi wrote in pro-government daily Magyar Nemzet on Wednesday."

  • A press statement from Orban and Xi is expected at around 1730CET (1130ET, 1630BST).
  • As we noted previously (see 'HUNGARY: Szijjarto Pushes Back On NATO Actions Re: Ukraine In Meeting w/UK FM', 8 May 1529BST), there are widespread expectations that Xi and Orban could sign between 16-18 cooperation agreements that may include a significant infrastructure project under China's Belt and Road Initiative.
  • There is also speculation that should Orban and Xi travel to the southern town of Pecs, the two could announce China's Great Wall Motor establishing a plant to build electric vehicles. As Foreign Policy notes, "Budapest received $11.5 billion in Chinese funds in 2023 alone, much of it related to electric vehicles. Whereas the European Union has warned against China dominating the critical sector, Hungary has leaned into Chinese support. Last December, Chinese carmaker BYD announced that it would build an assembly plant in Hungary, marking its first EV production facility in Europe."
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HUNGARY

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