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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
LATEST INSIGHT 
Political Risk
Young Voters Trust Trump To Handle Inflation
A survey from Blueprintfinds that young voters, "trust Biden over Trump to handle almost every issue," but, "the only two issues where Biden loses to Trump on trust may be the defining issues of the 2024 election: reducing prices (52% trust Trump more) and securing the border (53% trust Trump more)."
- Blueprint notes: "Relatedly, the Biden policies that young voters say will most benefit their lives are targeted at price reduction, including investing in agricultural supply chains to bring down food prices, banning “junk fees,” and allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription drug pricing," a sign that White House policies are failing to resonate with young voters.
- The survey suggests that some reporting of young voters may be overattributing Biden's poor polling with young voters to his Israel policy. Rather, young voters are largely aligned with the broader electorate on pocketbook issues.
- Blueprint pollster Evan Smith said: “Far too many people confuse the way that young voters are different from the wider electorate with the issues that young voters actually care about the most.”
Figure 1: Highest Priority Issues for Young Voters
Source: Blueprint
Trump Opens Lead Over Biden Following Influential NYT Poll
Former President Donald Trump finishes the week in his strongest position in the race from the White House since early March in the wake of a widely reported New York Times/Siena College survey which upended a polling trend suggesting Biden was in the ascendency.
- While it is unusual for a single poll to materially impact perceptions of the presidential race six months out from election day, the survey drew an immediate confirmatory response from betting markets which have seen Trump cross the 50% threshold and breaking a months-long dead-heat with Biden.
- Subsequent polls from Ipsos and YouGov showing a much closer race have failed to elicit a similar reaction reflecting that betting and prediction markets are receptive to Trump's favourite status.
- Biden's approval finishes with week under the 40%, as it has been for much of 2024. The 538 approval tracker notes that Biden's approval touched 38% this week - close to the record low for his presidency.
- ElectionBettingOdds, a site which aggregates data from betting and prediction markets, shows Trump with a 50.4% implied probability of winning.
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Winner
Source: Election Betting Odds
Abortion/Border Security/Economy Are Three 'Deal Breaker' Issues, Fox News
A new Fox News survey has found that three issues meet the criteria of presidential election ‘deal-breaker’ ahead of the general election in November. An issue, “so important to a voter that it alone decides whether they can back a candidate or not.”
- According to Fox, Abortion, border security, and the economy all fight for the top "deal-breaker" spot, with different groups of voters citing each:: “At 15%, abortion edges out the economy and border security/immigration (each at 14%) as the biggest deal-breaker issue.”
- Biden is considered to have a clear advantage over Trump on abortion, with Trump leading on both the economy and immigration. Six months out from the presidential election, Biden's policy on immigration could be decisive if he is to close a slim polling advantage for Trump.
- Fox News: “Abortion is the biggest single issue among self-described Democrats (24%)... Border security is buoyed by being the number one deal-breaker among self-described very conservatives (28%), Republicans (25%)... The economy is the single deciding issue among White evangelicals (19%), Hispanic voters (17%), independents (17%)..."
Figure 1: “What Issue is a Dealbreaker when you Decide how to vote for President? (Open Question)
Source: Fox News
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.