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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI NBH Preview - May 2024: New Phase of Policy Continues
The National Bank of Hungary is expected to cut the base rate by 50bps to 7.25%.
MNI POLICY: NBH Set For Second 50Bp Cut, H2 Outlook Less Clear
Hungarian central bank slowed its pace of easing from 75bps in April, and looks like hitting its 6.50-7.00% base rate target by mid-year as planned.
MNI: Fed Considering Discount Window Readiness Rule - Barr
Improving the functionality of the discount window would help address lessons about liquidity learned last spring, Fed regulator says.
Sweden Macro Signal - May 2024: Recovery In Sight
“Green shoots” are beginning to emerge in the Swedish economy, supported by easing policy rates, improving sentiment and positive real wage growth.
MNI INTERVIEW: BOE Models Can Ditch 2% Inflation Expectations
The BOE could respond to Ben Bernanke's criticism of its forecasting by using survey inflation expectations, a former head of modelling at the Bank tells MNI.
House Of Reps To Consider Two Crypto Bills This Week
The House of Representatives will consider two pieces of legislation this week which could bolster the crypto industry. The first, H.R. 4763, would take some regulatory powers away from the Securities and Exchange Commission by reclassifying crypto as a commodity rather than a security. The second, H.R. 5403, would bar the Federal Reserve from issuing its own digital currency.
- Bloomberg notes: "SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has said almost all crypto tokens are securities. During his tenure, the SEC has levied a slew of enforcement actions against crypto firms for issuing or allowing users to trade unregistered securities."
- Ranking Democrat of the Financial Services Committee, Rep Maxine Waters (D-CA), said “there is simply no good reason to throw all of that away [longstanding financial regulation] in favor of a complicated new framework that caters to a single industry that refuses to follow the rules."
- Democrats said in the committee report: “By shifting a substantial portion of the digital assets market to the commodities regime, the bill removes several critical protections that apply to securities and not commodities.”
- Politico notes: “Watch closely to see whether House Democratic leaders whip against these: The backdrop is growing Democratic dismay with the Biden administration’s tough-on-crypto stance, which could pave the path for industry friendly regulation if Trump wins in November.”
All of the gilts sold in the 15-year area
- All of the sales around the 15-year area with GBP642.2mln of the 4.75% Dec-38 gilt and GBP107.8mln of the 1.125% Jan-39 gilt sold.
- There were also a lot of offers for the 4.25% Mar-36 gilt (the GBP906mln a larger size than the total amount sold across all medium gilts today) - but the BOE didn't accept any of the offers for this gilt.
- Note, gilt futures fell around 15 ticks going into the bidding deadline (the 5 mins before) - but that move has all been revered so we trade back at 97.70 at writing.
Schumer To Hold Messaging Vote On Bipartisan Border Security Bill
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will bring the bipartisan border security package to the floor for a vote this week. The bill, which failed to pass the Senate earlier this year after an intervention former President Donald Trump, is expected to fail again with most Republicans and some Democrats likely to vote against the package.
- Despite the high probability of failure, the vote will serve as an exercise in messaging on one of the most salient issues of the 2024 presidential election. It will offer President Biden flexibility to push for some executive actions on the border and provide cover for vulnerable Democrats defending seats in red states. Notably, Senators Jon Tester (D-MO) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) – both needing to significantly outperform Biden to hold their seats - can limit their exposure to the issue by arguing they have voted in favour of a strict border package.
- Schumer said in a letter to Democrat lawmakers: “Back in January, the former President urged Congressional Republicans to kill the bipartisan bill... The American people do not have the luxury of playing partisan blame games ... American people deserve political leaders who will work towards bipartisan solutions...”
- Senator Brian Schatz (D-HI) said: “We are not going to stop talking about this… We’re tired of being on defense about this. Frankly, our argument is better. The Republicans unanimously tanked tough border policy because their boss told them to.”
MNI POLITICAL RISK - Senate To Vote On Border Bill This Week
Daily roundup of news from the US.
Executive Summary:
- Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is expected to bring the bipartisan border security package, which failed to pass the Senate earlier this year, to the floor for a vote this week. The vote, which is expected to fail again, will serve as an exercise in messaging on one of the most salient issues of the election cycle.
- The House will consider two pieces of legislation this week which could bolster the crypto industry. The first would take some regulatory powers away from the SEC. The second would bar the Federal Reserve from issuing its own digital currency.
- Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will be tasked with convincing G7 counterparts to back a plan to use frozen Russian sovereign assets to fund Ukraine at this week's meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bank governors in Italy. Yellen said ahead of the trip that the US intends to pursue a plan short of the outright seizure of assets but will do, “something more ambitious with the windfall profits.”
- The Biden administration has issued a memo outlining strategy for countering rising costs, arguing that former President Donald Trump’s agenda would exacerbate inflation.
- It appears increasingly unlikely that Trump will testify in his ‘hush money’ criminal trial. If Trump declines to take the stand, the Manhattan jury could begin deliberations as soon as this week.
- Poll of the Day: Biden's weakness in the Sun Belt pushes presidential race towards Trump.
Please find the full article attached below:
MNI REAL-TIME COVERAGE
US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.480 BLN FROM $70.000 BLN TOTAL
US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.106 BLN FROM $70.000 BLN TOTAL
Government Postpones Industrial Policy Presentation Following Floods
Timely & Actionable Insight on Central Bank Policy
Timely & Actionable Insight on FX & FI Markets
Timely & Actionable Insight on Emerging Markets
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MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: Gold Hits Fresh Record Highs
MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - Canada, UK and Japan CPI Headline
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.